Analysis published in December 2012 on the website Agrimoney.com projects low cotton prices (which have fallen two-thirds from their all-time highs of March 2011) leading to the largest season-on-season fall in global cotton production in 20 years. The International Cotton Advisory Committee estimates that ‘world cotton production will fall 11.0% to 23.19m tonnes’ in 2013/14. Production is projected to decline in southern hemisphere producers such as Australia and Brazil, and to ‘fall sharply’ in Turkey and the USA, in the face of competition for land use from other crops, particularly soya. Smaller crops are also forecast in China, Pakistan, central Asia and francophone Africa.
World cotton inventories at the close of the 2012/13 are nevertheless projected to reach ‘a record high… – equivalent to more than eight months’ use’. World cotton stocks at the end of 2013/14, while slightly reduced, are still expected to be ‘high by historic standards’.
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