This study rests on Agribiom, a simple world food-balance model in calories connecting land use and agricultural production to biomass consumption in various forms (food, feed, biofuel, etc.).
This tool is used to revisit and di scuss the 2012 revision of the “World Agriculture Towards 2030/50” of the Food and Agriculture Or ganization of the United Nations (FAO). Conversion and aggregation into calories of country-wise and produ ct-wise detailed FAO data in tonnes (demand, production and trade) for 2005-07 and 2050 help to synthesize the FAO projections and their assumptions for nine world regions, including Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the focus of this study. Our regional FAO-based scenarios in calories are then compared and discussed with Agribiom historical estimates from 1961 to 2007 in various fields (cultivated area, yield, net trade, population and food diet, other uses of food biomass).
In the last section, we question three critical points that challenge the projection of SSA in the global food system: the population projections (total and active), the agricultural labour productivity, the widening gap of income between farm and non-farm jobs.
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